Houston Astros at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Carlos CorreaBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Colton GordonPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Rangers- Jake BurgerBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Merrill KellyPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 12Harris doubled to right, Freeman scored, Langford to third.3–4
- 8Correa homered to right (359 feet), Altuve scored.3–3
- 3Burger homered to left (441 feet), Langford scored.1–3
- 2Moore hit sacrifice fly to center, Jung scored, Duran to second.1–1
- 2Caratini singled to right, Sánchez scored, Walker to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 53%
- ML HOU +105 / TEX -125
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.8 pts
- TEX: Elo 56.1%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- TEX -114
- HOU +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 3.6 – 3.9 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | 0 | HOU: Colton Gordon: team allows 0.67 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · TEX: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.00 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +42 Elo | TEX 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 56.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.320th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 3.71st of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.67th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 5th of 3034–32 | Road vs home | 42–2710th of 30 |
| 29th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 149624th of 30 |
| 15th of 301508 | Elo rating | 151910th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 68–73 | 74–67 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 32–57 | 35–39 |
| Underdog | 36–16 | 39–28 |
| Overs–unders | 67–74 | 63–78 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 22–18 TEX in their last 40 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 40.