Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Josh SmithBatting1-3
- Jack LeiterPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Diamondbacks- Gabriel MorenoBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 2Thomas scored on error, McCarthy safe at first on fielding error by first baseman Burger, Locklear to second.0–2
- 1Moreno singled to right, Carroll scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 54%
- ML TEX +110 / ARI -130
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.0 pts
- ARI: Elo 51.3%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- ARI -119
- TEX +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.1 – 4.4 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +7 | TEX: Jack Leiter: team allows 0.40 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +9 Elo | ARI 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.97th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.824th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.115th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 24th of 3030–41 | Road vs home | 35–3319th of 30 |
| 24th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149625th of 30 |
| 10th of 301520 | Elo rating | 151213th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 74–66 | 72–68 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 35–39 | 31–46 |
| Underdog | 39–27 | 41–22 |
| Overs–unders | 63–77 | 71–69 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 9–9 ARI in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 18.