Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Jo AdellBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Yusei KikuchiPitching5.2 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Astros- Jose AltuveBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Luis GarciaPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Altuve homered to left (374 feet), Melton scored.3–8
- 8Alvarez singled to left, Smith scored.3–6
- 6Peña doubled to left, Smith scored, Dubón to third.3–5
- 5Correa singled to center, Alvarez scored.3–4
- 4Urías singled to center, Diaz scored.3–3
- 4Adell homered to left (396 feet), Trout scored.3–2
- 4Neto homered to left (339 feet).1–2
- 3Altuve doubled to left, Peña scored.0–2
- 2Urías homered to left (361 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 60%
- ML LAA +140 / HOU -165
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.4 pts
- HOU: Elo 62.3%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- HOU -149
- LAA +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.8 – 4.7 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1456 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +13 | LAA: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Luis Garcia: team allows 0.64 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +87 Elo | HOU 62.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 54.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.225th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.16th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +0.116th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 21st of 3030–37 | Road vs home | 41–3013th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 149428th of 30 |
| 27th of 301456 | Elo rating | 151014th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 71–65 | 66–71 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–26 | 31–57 |
| Underdog | 60–39 | 35–14 |
| Overs–unders | 75–61 | 63–74 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 12–23 HOU in their last 35 meetings; the forecast called 21 of 35.