Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Zach NetoBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle HendricksPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Astros- Yordan AlvarezBatting2-4
- Spencer ArrighettiPitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Trout walked, Lugo scored, Moncada to second, Peraza to third.4–1
- 9Peraza singled to right, O'Hoppe scored and Rengifo scored, Peraza to second, Lugo to third.3–1
- 3Sánchez reached on infield single to second, Peña scored, Altuve to second.1–1
- 3Neto homered to left (403 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 60%
- ML LAA +140 / HOU -165
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.9 pts
- HOU: Elo 58.0%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- HOU -149
- LAA +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.3 – 5.2 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1451 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −19 | LAA: Kyle Hendricks: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Spencer Arrighetti: team allows 0.93 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +56 Elo | HOU 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 56.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 57.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 27th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +0.215th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3028–37 | Road vs home | 41–2812th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 149428th of 30 |
| 27th of 301451 | Elo rating | 151513th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 69–65 | 66–69 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 11–26 | 31–55 |
| Underdog | 58–39 | 35–14 |
| Overs–unders | 75–59 | 63–72 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 10–23 HOU in their last 33 meetings; the forecast called 21 of 33.