Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Yoan MoncadaBatting1-3
- Tyler AndersonPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Astros- Jeremy PenaBatting2-5
- Cristian JavierPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Alvarez hit sacrifice fly to left, Smith scored, Peña to second.0–2
- 7Correa singled to right, Alvarez scored, Altuve to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 59%
- ML LAA +135 / HOU -160
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- HOU: Elo 58.5%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- HOU -145
- LAA +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.3 – 5.2 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1453 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −19 | LAA: Tyler Anderson: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Cristian Javier: team allows 0.97 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +60 Elo | HOU 58.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 57.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 57.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.19th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +0.115th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3028–36 | Road vs home | 40–2813th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 149528th of 30 |
| 27th of 301453 | Elo rating | 151413th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 69–64 | 65–69 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–26 | 30–55 |
| Underdog | 58–38 | 35–14 |
| Overs–unders | 75–58 | 63–71 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 10–22 HOU in their last 32 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 32.