New York Yankees at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Jazz Chisholm Jr.Batting3-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Max FriedPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Astros- Yainer DiazBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Chisholm Jr. homered to right (384 feet).7–1
- 6Diaz grounded into fielder's choice to third, Correa scored, Walker out at second.6–1
- 5Grisham homered to left center (358 feet), Goldschmidt scored, Bellinger scored and Judge scored.6–0
- 2Chisholm Jr. homered to right (392 feet), Grisham scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 54%
- ML NYY -130 / HOU +110
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.6 pts
- NYY: Elo 50.7%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- NYY -119
- HOU +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 3.9 – 3.6 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1543 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +10 | NYY: Max Fried: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +5 Elo | NYY 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 51.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.224th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.16th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.0 | Margin | +0.114th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 5th of 3035–33 | Road vs home | 42–3013th of 30 |
| 13th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149429th of 30 |
| 4th of 301543 | Elo rating | 151213th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 64–73 | 67–71 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 52–65 | 32–57 |
| Underdog | 12–8 | 35–14 |
| Overs–unders | 67–70 | 64–74 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 12–5 HOU in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 17.