New York Yankees at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cam SchlittlerPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
White Sox- Mike TauchmanBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Shane SmithPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 11Robertson grounded out to second, Montgomery scored.5–3
- 11Volpe doubled to right, Chisholm Jr. scored, Wells to third.5–2
- 11Chisholm Jr. doubled to left, Judge scored, Bellinger to third.4–2
- 11Bellinger singled to left, Grisham scored, Judge to second.3–2
- 7Meidroth singled to center, Mead scored.2–2
- 7Wells homered to right center (410 feet).2–1
- 5Tauchman singled to right, Mead scored.1–1
- 4Judge homered to center (429 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 64%
- ML NYY -200 / CHW +165
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- NYY: Elo 64.5%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- NYY -177
- CHW +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.9 – 3.6 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1543 | 1428 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | 0 | NYY: Cam Schlittler: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · CHW: Shane Smith: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +103 Elo | NYY 64.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 61.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 61.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.3 | Runs scored | 3.926th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.622nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.0 | Margin | −0.727th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 4th of 3034–32 | Road vs home | 29–4128th of 30 |
| 12th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15036th of 30 |
| 4th of 301543 | Elo rating | 142829th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 63–72 | 77–58 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 51–64 | 2–5 |
| Underdog | 12–8 | 75–52 |
| Overs–unders | 67–68 | 67–68 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 9–5 CHW in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 14.