Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Mike YastrzemskiBatting1-2
- Noah CameronPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 0 K
White Sox- Korey LeeBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Shane SmithPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Sosa singled to left, Vargas scored.0–7
- 4Baldwin homered to left center (402 feet).0–6
- 4Lee homered to left (392 feet), Mead scored.0–5
- 1Mead doubled to center, Sosa scored.0–3
- 1Sosa doubled to right, Quero scored.0–2
- 1Quero doubled to left, Meidroth scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- KC 55%
- ML KC -135 / CHW +115
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.8 pts
- KC: Elo 60.1%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- KC -124
- CHW +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.5 – 4.0 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1432 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −7 | KC: Noah Cameron: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CHW: Shane Smith: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +71 Elo | KC 60.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 57.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 3.926th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.520th of 30 |
| 17th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.625th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 13th of 3031–34 | Road vs home | 28–3727th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 150211th of 30 |
| 15th of 301507 | Elo rating | 143229th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 65–66 | 76–54 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 23–36 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 42–30 | 74–49 |
| Overs–unders | 58–73 | 63–67 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 27–9 CHW in their last 36 meetings; the forecast called 29 of 36.