New York Yankees at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Cody BellingerBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Will WarrenPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
White Sox- Miguel VargasBatting1-2, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Davis MartinPitching3.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Goldschmidt hit sacrifice fly to right, Bellinger scored, Chisholm Jr. to third.10–4
- 8Grisham homered to right center (391 feet), McMahon scored.9–4
- 8Volpe hit sacrifice fly to center, Goldschmidt scored, McMahon to third.7–4
- 5Chisholm Jr. hit sacrifice fly to right, Judge scored.6–4
- 5Judge reached on infield single to third, Rice scored on throwing error by third baseman Mead, Judge to second.5–4
- 2Vargas homered to left (401 feet), Quero scored, Baldwin scored and Meidroth scored.4–4
- 2Rice singled to right, Volpe scored, Grisham to third.4–0
- 2Chisholm Jr. homered to right center (382 feet).3–0
- 1Bellinger homered to right (396 feet), Judge scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 62%
- ML NYY -180 / CHW +150
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- NYY: Elo 60.7%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- NYY -161
- CHW +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 5.3 – 4.2 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1432 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +2 | NYY: Will Warren: team allows 0.52 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Davis Martin: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +76 Elo | NYY 60.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 63.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 62.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.2 | Runs scored | 3.926th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.520th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+0.9 | Margin | −0.624th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 5th of 3032–32 | Road vs home | 29–3928th of 30 |
| 9th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 150310th of 30 |
| 4th of 301539 | Elo rating | 143229th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 61–72 | 77–56 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 49–64 | 2–5 |
| Underdog | 12–8 | 75–50 |
| Overs–unders | 65–68 | 65–68 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 7–5 CHW in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 12.