Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Maikel GarciaBatting1-5, 2 RBI
- Michael LorenzenPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
White Sox- Colson MontgomeryBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Martin PerezPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Isbel singled to center, India scored, Frazier to second, Massey to third.5–4
- 9Massey singled to right, Pasquantino scored and Yastrzemski scored, India to third.4–4
- 8Garcia singled to right, Frazier scored and India scored, Isbel to second.2–4
- 6Vargas scored on Schreiber wild pitch, Sosa to second on wild pitch by Schreiber, Teel to third on wild pitch by Schreiber.0–4
- 6Vargas scored on Schreiber wild pitch, Sosa to second on wild pitch by Schreiber, Teel to third on wild pitch by Schreiber.0–4
- 6Sosa singled to left, Tauchman scored, Teel to second, Vargas to third.0–3
- 6Teel singled to center, Baldwin scored, Vargas to second, Tauchman to third.0–2
- 2Montgomery homered to left (361 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- KC 51%
- ML KC -115 / CHW -105
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.0 pts
- KC: Elo 56.1%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- KC -104
- CHW +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.3 – 4.2 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1436 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +8 | KC: Michael Lorenzen: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Martin Perez: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +43 Elo | KC 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.026th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.523rd of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 16th of 3031–35 | Road vs home | 29–3727th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 150211th of 30 |
| 18th of 301503 | Elo rating | 143629th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 65–67 | 77–54 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 23–37 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 42–30 | 75–49 |
| Overs–unders | 58–74 | 63–68 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 27–10 CHW in their last 37 meetings; the forecast called 29 of 37.