Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Mike YastrzemskiBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Ryan BergertPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
White Sox- Andrew BenintendiBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Aaron CivalePitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Garcia singled to right, Yastrzemski scored, Loftin to second.12–1
- 6Yastrzemski homered to center (409 feet), Massey scored and Isbel scored.11–1
- 5Frazier doubled to left, Perez scored.8–1
- 5Perez doubled to left, Garcia scored and Pasquantino scored.7–1
- 5Pasquantino singled to center, Yastrzemski scored and Witt Jr. scored.5–1
- 5Witt Jr. singled to right, Frazier scored and Isbel scored, Witt Jr. to second, Yastrzemski to third.3–1
- 5Perez homered to right center (396 feet).1–1
- 4Benintendi homered to right (353 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- KC 54%
- ML KC -130 / CHW +110
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.0 pts
- KC: Elo 57.3%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- KC -119
- CHW +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.4 – 4.1 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1435 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −2 | KC: Ryan Bergert: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CHW: Aaron Civale: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +51 Elo | KC 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.026th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.524th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 13th of 3032–35 | Road vs home | 29–3827th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 150211th of 30 |
| 17th of 301504 | Elo rating | 143529th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 66–67 | 77–55 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 23–37 | 2–5 |
| Underdog | 43–30 | 75–49 |
| Overs–unders | 59–74 | 64–68 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 28–10 CHW in their last 38 meetings; the forecast called 30 of 38.