New York Yankees at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Trent GrishamBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Carlos RodonPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
White Sox- Chase MeidrothBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Yoendrys GomezPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Benintendi singled to right, Quero scored, Montgomery to third.10–2
- 7Volpe homered to center (406 feet), McMahon scored.10–1
- 6Rice singled to left, Volpe scored, Judge to second, Wells to third.8–1
- 6Wells reached on infield single to first, McMahon scored, Volpe to third.7–1
- 6Volpe singled to center, Chisholm Jr. scored, McMahon to second.6–1
- 5Meidroth reached on infield single to third, Benintendi scored, M. Taylor to third.5–1
- 4Grisham homered to right center (387 feet), Stanton scored, Chisholm Jr. scored and Wells scored.5–0
- 1Rice grounded into double play, shortstop to first, Grisham scored, Bellinger out at second, Judge to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 66%
- ML NYY -225 / CHW +185
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.4 pts
- NYY: Elo 63.9%, market 66.4%
- Fair odds
- NYY -197
- CHW +197 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 5.0 – 3.5 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1430 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +3 | NYY: Carlos Rodon: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Yoendrys Gomez: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +100 Elo | NYY 63.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 64.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 64.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 66.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.2 | Runs scored | 3.926th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.620th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+0.9 | Margin | −0.626th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 5th of 3033–32 | Road vs home | 29–4028th of 30 |
| 11th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 15039th of 30 |
| 4th of 301541 | Elo rating | 143029th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 62–72 | 77–57 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 50–64 | 2–5 |
| Underdog | 12–8 | 75–51 |
| Overs–unders | 66–68 | 66–68 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 8–5 CHW in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 13.