New York Yankees at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Luis GilPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
White Sox- Lenyn SosaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Martin PerezPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Sosa homered to center (418 feet).2–3
- 6Montgomery homered to center (412 feet).2–2
- 3Bellinger doubled to right, Judge scored.2–1
- 2Robertson doubled to left, Mead scored.1–1
- 1Judge homered to center (426 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 61%
- ML NYY -175 / CHW +145
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.6 pts
- NYY: Elo 63.5%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- NYY -156
- CHW +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.7 – 3.8 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1544 | 1427 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +6 | NYY: Luis Gil: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Martin Perez: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +96 Elo | NYY 63.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 64.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 64.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.3 | Runs scored | 3.926th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.621st of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.0 | Margin | −0.727th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3035–32 | Road vs home | 29–4228th of 30 |
| 13th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15046th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301544 | Elo rating | 142729th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 64–72 | 77–59 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 52–64 | 2–5 |
| Underdog | 12–8 | 75–53 |
| Overs–unders | 67–69 | 67–69 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 10–5 CHW in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 15.