New York Yankees at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Ryan McMahonBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Carlos RodonPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Astros- Yordan AlvarezBatting4-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cristian JavierPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Alvarez singled to left, Caratini scored, Trammell to third.8–4
- 8Grisham homered to right (404 feet), Wells scored and McMahon scored.8–3
- 8McMahon reached on infield single to second, Domínguez scored, Wells to third.5–3
- 7Sánchez homered to left (357 feet).4–3
- 6Correa grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Alvarez scored on throwing error by second baseman Caballero, Altuve out at second.4–2
- 5Caballero walked, Rice scored, Bellinger to second, Judge to third.4–1
- 5Bellinger singled to right, Grisham scored, Judge to second, Rice to third.3–1
- 5McMahon homered to center (410 feet).2–1
- 3Alvarez homered to right center (395 feet).1–1
- 2McMahon singled to right, Wells scored, Volpe to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 57%
- ML NYY -145 / HOU +120
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.7 pts
- NYY: Elo 55.9%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- NYY -130
- HOU +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.5 – 4.0 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1545 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | −13 | NYY: Carlos Rodon: team allows 0.56 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Cristian Javier: team allows 0.65 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +41 Elo | NYY 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 57.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 56.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.3 | Runs scored | 4.224th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.18th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.0 | Margin | +0.116th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 5th of 3036–34 | Road vs home | 43–3114th of 30 |
| 11th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149429th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301545 | Elo rating | 151015th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 65–74 | 68–72 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 53–66 | 32–57 |
| Underdog | 12–8 | 36–15 |
| Overs–unders | 69–70 | 66–74 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 13–6 HOU in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 19.