New York Yankees at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Austin WellsBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Will WarrenPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Astros- Jeremy PenaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jason AlexanderPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Bellinger homered to right center (381 feet), McMahon scored and Judge scored.7–8
- 8Trammell scored on Doval wild pitch, Peña to third on wild pitch by Doval.4–8
- 8Trammell scored on Doval wild pitch, Peña to third on wild pitch by Doval.4–8
- 8Walker scored on a balk, Peña to second on a balk, Trammell to third on a balk.4–8
- 8Walker scored on a balk, Peña to second on a balk, Trammell to third on a balk.4–8
- 8Peña singled to right, Sánchez scored, Trammell to second, Walker to third.4–6
- 8Trammell walked, Correa scored, Walker to second, Sánchez to third.4–5
- 7Alvarez singled to left, Melton scored on error, Alvarez safe at second on throwing error by left fielder Stanton, Peña safe at third on error.4–4
- 6Altuve grounded out to third, Alvarez scored.4–3
- 6Peña homered to left (390 feet).4–2
- 6McMahon hit sacrifice fly to center, Rice scored.4–1
- 5Urías hit sacrifice fly to center, Diaz scored.3–1
- 4Wells homered to left (335 feet), Rice scored.3–0
- 2Stanton homered to left (403 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 57%
- ML NYY -150 / HOU +125
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.6 pts
- NYY: Elo 49.9%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- NYY -135
- HOU +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 5.1 – 4.4 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +11 | NYY: Will Warren: team allows 0.45 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Jason Alexander: team allows 0.54 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +1 Elo | HOU 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 54.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.3 | Runs scored | 4.225th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.0 | Margin | +0.116th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3036–33 | Road vs home | 42–3114th of 30 |
| 12th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149429th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301546 | Elo rating | 150915th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 65–73 | 67–72 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 53–65 | 32–57 |
| Underdog | 12–8 | 35–15 |
| Overs–unders | 68–70 | 65–74 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 13–5 HOU in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 18.