Houston Astros at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Yordan AlvarezBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Hunter BrownPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Rangers- Josh SmithBatting1-3
- Jacob deGromPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Urías reached on infield single to shortstop, Peña scored, Dubón to second.11–0
- 9Dubón singled to right, Diaz scored and Meyers scored, Peña to third.10–0
- 9Diaz singled to left, Smith scored and Trammell scored.8–0
- 8Alvarez singled to center, Walker scored, Meyers to second.6–0
- 8Meyers singled to left, Trammell scored, Walker to third.5–0
- 8Walker doubled to left, Smith scored, Caratini to third.4–0
- 6Diaz doubled to right, Correa scored, Caratini to third.3–0
- 5Alvarez homered to right (421 feet).2–0
- 3Walker homered to center (426 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 52%
- ML HOU +100 / TEX -120
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- TEX: Elo 52.9%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- TEX -109
- HOU +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 3.2 – 3.3 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | +2 | HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.64 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Jacob deGrom: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +20 Elo | TEX 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.320th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 3.71st of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.67th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 7th of 3034–33 | Road vs home | 43–279th of 30 |
| 28th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 149625th of 30 |
| 15th of 301507 | Elo rating | 152010th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 69–73 | 74–68 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 32–57 | 35–40 |
| Underdog | 37–16 | 39–28 |
| Overs–unders | 67–75 | 63–79 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 22–19 TEX in their last 41 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 41.