St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Alec BurlesonBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Andre PallantePitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 0 K
Brewers- Christian YelichBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Quinn PriesterPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Chourio singled to right, Ortiz scored, Frelick to second.2–8
- 7Yelich homered to center (392 feet), Turang scored.2–7
- 6Nootbaar singled to left, Burleson scored.2–5
- 6Burleson tripled to center, Herrera scored.1–5
- 4Bauers doubled to center, Collins scored.0–5
- 3Turang grounded into fielder's choice to first, Frelick scored.0–4
- 3Chourio hit sacrifice fly to right, Durbin scored on error and Ortiz scored on throwing error by right fielder Walker, Frelick safe at third on error.0–3
- 3Frelick walked, Bauers scored, Ortiz to second, Durbin to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 62%
- ML STL +155 / MIL -185
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.1 pts
- MIL: Elo 67.4%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- MIL -166
- STL +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.7 – 4.8 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1569 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +11 | STL: Andre Pallante: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Quinn Priester: team allows 0.56 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +127 Elo | MIL 67.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 61.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 62.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.13rd of 30 |
| 21st of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 3.94th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +1.11st of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3031–41 | Road vs home | 46–264th of 30 |
| 14th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149723rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 301477 | Elo rating | 15691st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 68–79 | 82–65 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 24–46 | 40–45 |
| Underdog | 44–33 | 42–20 |
| Overs–unders | 77–70 | 73–74 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 13–20 MIL in their last 33 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 33.