Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Sal FrelickBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jacob MisiorowskiPitching3.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Cardinals- Nolan ArenadoBatting1-5, 3 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 5Walker singled to center, Saggese scored.1–7
- 5Saggese hit a ground rule double, Arenado scored.1–6
- 5Arenado doubled to left, Burleson scored on error, Donovan scored and Herrera scored, Arenado safe at third on throwing error by second baseman Turang.1–5
- 3Frelick homered to right (422 feet).1–2
- 2Walker grounded into double play, second to first, Saggese scored, Pagés out at second.0–2
- 1Nootbaar singled to center, Donovan scored, Nootbaar out stretching at second, Arenado to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 53%
- ML MIL -125 / STL +105
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.1 pts
- MIL: Elo 60.3%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- MIL -114
- STL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 3.9 – 3.6 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1574 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −18 | −7 | MIL: Jacob Misiorowski: team allows 0.91 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · STL: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.37 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +73 Elo | MIL 60.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 56.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 57.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.319th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.622nd of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.2 | Margin | −0.421st of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 1st of 3043–32 | Road vs home | 42–3616th of 30 |
| 25th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15035th of 30 |
| 1st of 301574 | Elo rating | 147324th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 86–67 | 71–82 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 44–47 | 24–47 |
| Underdog | 42–20 | 47–35 |
| Overs–unders | 77–76 | 80–73 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 22–14 STL in their last 36 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 36.