Los Angeles Angels at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Taylor WardBatting3-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Jose UrenaPitching3.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Brewers- Sal FrelickBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Brandon WoodruffPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Perkins tripled to right, Yelich scored, Turang scored and Durbin scored.2–9
- 6Contreras scored on error, Durbin safe at first on throwing error by pitcher Ureña, Durbin safe at second on error, Turang safe at third on error.2–6
- 6Ward homered to left (383 feet).2–5
- 4Ward homered to left center (428 feet).1–5
- 2Frelick homered to right center (382 feet), Bauers scored and Perkins scored.0–5
- 2Perkins singled to left, Contreras scored and Turang scored, Bauers to second.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 67%
- ML LAA +195 / MIL -235
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.3 pts
- MIL: Elo 70.7%, market 67.4%
- Fair odds
- MIL -207
- LAA +207 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.0 – 4.5 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1446 | 1572 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +7 | LAA: Jose Soriano: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Brandon Woodruff: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +153 Elo | MIL 70.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 63.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 64.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 67.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.13rd of 30 |
| 28th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 3.93rd of 30 |
| 28th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +1.21st of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3032–44 | Road vs home | 49–273rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 149624th of 30 |
| 27th of 301446 | Elo rating | 15721st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 77–74 | 84–67 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 12–31 | 42–47 |
| Underdog | 65–43 | 42–20 |
| Overs–unders | 84–67 | 76–75 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 2–5 MIL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.