Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Jo AdellBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Mitch FarrisPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 K
Mariners- J.P. CrawfordBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bryan WooPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 13 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ward homered to left (381 feet).3–5
- 5Naylor singled to right, Raleigh scored and Rodríguez scored, Polanco to third.2–5
- 4Crawford homered to right center (391 feet).2–3
- 2Teodosio singled to right, Moore scored, Rivero to third.2–2
- 2Adell homered to center (429 feet).1–2
- 1Polanco doubled to right, Raleigh scored and Rodríguez scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 69%
- ML LAA +210 / SEA -255
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.3 pts
- SEA: Elo 61.7%, market 69.0%
- Fair odds
- SEA -223
- LAA +223 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 2.9 – 4.6 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1451 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | +10 | LAA: Mitch Farris: team allows 0.86 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · SEA: Bryan Woo: team allows 0.51 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +83 Elo | SEA 61.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 69.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 68.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 69.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.711th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.417th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +0.313th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 21st of 3032–41 | Road vs home | 46–275th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 30 |
| 27th of 301451 | Elo rating | 152310th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 77–71 | 61–87 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 12–31 | 29–65 |
| Underdog | 65–40 | 32–22 |
| Overs–unders | 81–67 | 81–67 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 17–20 SEA in their last 37 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 37.