Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Byron BuxtonBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Taj BradleyPitching6.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Angels- Zach NetoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jose UrenaPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Trout hit sacrifice fly to left, Teodosio scored.3–4
- 6Buxton homered to right center (396 feet), Fitzgerald scored.3–3
- 3Neto homered to left (384 feet), Trout scored.1–3
- 3Trout singled to left, Rivero scored.1–1
- 3Outman homered to right (388 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Angels 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAA 51%
- ML MIN -105 / LAA -115
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- LAA: Elo 51.7%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- LAA -104
- MIN +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.7 – 4.8 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1464 | 1452 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −19 | −13 | MIN: Taj Bradley: team allows 0.93 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Jose Urena: team allows 0.65 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +12 Elo | LAA 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAA 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.320th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 5.127th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.828th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 27th of 3029–45 | Road vs home | 36–3824th of 30 |
| 21st of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15053rd of 30 |
| 25th of 301464 | Elo rating | 145227th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 70–75 | 75–70 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 32–45 | 12–30 |
| Underdog | 38–29 | 63–40 |
| Overs–unders | 72–73 | 80–65 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 12–5 LAA in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 17.