Athletics at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Tyler SoderstromBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Luis SeverinoPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Angels- Jo AdellBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Mitch FarrisPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8d'Arnaud hit a ground rule double, Taylor scored, Peraza to third.3–4
- 8Thomas hit sacrifice fly to center, Kurtz scored, Rooker to second.3–3
- 7Soderstrom homered to left (389 feet).2–3
- 4Teodosio hit a ground rule double, Taylor scored, O'Hoppe to third.1–3
- 3MacIver homered to center (407 feet).1–2
- 1Adell homered to center (415 feet), Moncada scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATH 51%
- ML ATH -115 / LAA -105
- Pre-line forecast
- ATH 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATH 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- ATH: Elo 47.8%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- ATH -104
- LAA +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 4.8 – 4.7 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1451 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | +14 | ATH: Luis Severino: team allows 0.61 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Mitch Farris: team allows 0.69 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +15 Elo | LAA 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATH 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATH 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATH 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.322nd of 30 |
| 28th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 5.127th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.928th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 7th of 3037–37 | Road vs home | 34–3724th of 30 |
| 17th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15054th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301479 | Elo rating | 145127th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 79–64 | 74–68 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 16–20 | 11–28 |
| Underdog | 63–44 | 63–40 |
| Overs–unders | 77–66 | 78–64 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 18–20 LAA in their last 38 meetings; the forecast called 19 of 38.