Athletics at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Lawrence ButlerBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Mason BarnettPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
Angels- Luis RengifoBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Jose UrenaPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Butler homered to center (398 feet).10–4
- 3Rooker hit by pitch, Hernaiz scored, Langeliers to second, Kurtz to third.9–4
- 3Bleday homered to left (353 feet), Butler scored and Gelof scored.8–4
- 3Wilson scored on Soriano wild pitch, Gelof to second on wild pitch by Soriano, Butler to third on wild pitch by Soriano.5–4
- 3Wilson scored on Soriano wild pitch, Gelof to second on wild pitch by Soriano, Butler to third on wild pitch by Soriano.5–4
- 3Gelof singled to center, Soderstrom scored, Butler to second, Wilson to third.4–4
- 3Butler grounded into fielder's choice to first, Langeliers scored, Wilson to second, Soderstrom to third.3–4
- 1Peraza hit sacrifice fly to left, Ward scored.2–4
- 1Rengifo singled to left, Moncada scored, Adell to second, Ward to third.2–3
- 1Adell walked, Trout scored, Ward to second, Moncada to third.2–2
- 1Ward walked, Neto scored, Moncada to second, Trout to third.2–1
- 1Wilson singled to center, Langeliers scored.2–0
- 1Soderstrom grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Kurtz scored, Rooker out at second, Langeliers to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Angels 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAA 58%
- ML ATH +130 / LAA -155
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.7 pts
- LAA: Elo 53.6%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- LAA -140
- ATH +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 4.4 – 5.1 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1458 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | +8 | ATH: Mason Barnett: team allows 0.66 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · LAA: Jose Soriano: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +25 Elo | LAA 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 55.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 55.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAA 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.321st of 30 |
| 28th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 5.026th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.728th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 10th of 3035–37 | Road vs home | 34–3524th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15054th of 30 |
| 24th of 301472 | Elo rating | 145827th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 77–64 | 74–66 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 16–20 | 11–26 |
| Underdog | 61–44 | 63–40 |
| Overs–unders | 75–66 | 76–64 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 16–20 LAA in their last 36 meetings; the forecast called 19 of 36.