Los Angeles Angels at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Jo AdellBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Caden DanaPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Royals- Adam FrazierBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Ryan BergertPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Adell reached on infield single to shortstop, Moncada scored.4–3
- 7Frazier doubled to right, Tolbert scored.3–3
- 6Adell homered to center (418 feet), Neto scored and Moncada scored.3–2
- 3Yastrzemski hit sacrifice fly to right, Caglianone scored, Isbel to third.0–2
- 3Isbel hit sacrifice bunt, Massey scored, Isbel to first on throwing error by first baseman Peraza, Isbel to second, Caglianone to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- KC 60%
- ML LAA +140 / KC -165
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- KC: Elo 59.5%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- KC -149
- LAA +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.8 – 4.7 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1457 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +5 | LAA: Caden Dana: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · KC: Ryan Bergert: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +67 Elo | KC 59.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 58.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 58.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.3 | Runs scored | 3.828th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 3.93rd of 30 |
| 28th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −0.118th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 21st of 3031–38 | Road vs home | 37–3317th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 149625th of 30 |
| 27th of 301457 | Elo rating | 150118th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 72–66 | 68–70 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 11–26 | 24–39 |
| Underdog | 61–40 | 44–31 |
| Overs–unders | 76–62 | 60–78 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 7–7 KC in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 14.