Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Dillon DinglerBatting3-4
- Jack FlahertyPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Stephen KolekPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Witt Jr. homered to center (427 feet), Tolbert scored.1–3
- 4Garcia homered to left (428 feet).1–1
- 3Torres singled to left, Sweeney scored, Ibáñez to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- DET 52%
- ML DET -120 / KC +100
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.5 pts
- DET: Elo 47.7%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- DET -109
- KC +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.8 – 4.7 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −17 | −6 | DET: Jack Flaherty: team allows 0.87 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Stephen Kolek: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +16 Elo | KC 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 3.927th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.94th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.6 | Margin | 0.018th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3035–32 | Road vs home | 36–3116th of 30 |
| 30th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 149627th of 30 |
| 10th of 301518 | Elo rating | 150516th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 65–71 | 67–68 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 45–52 | 24–38 |
| Underdog | 20–19 | 43–30 |
| Overs–unders | 74–62 | 60–75 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 24–13 KC in their last 37 meetings; the forecast called 21 of 37.