Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Riley GreeneBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- Chris PaddackPitching3.2 IP, 3 ER, 0 K
Royals- Mike YastrzemskiBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching3.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Dingler homered to left center (399 feet).5–3
- 4Greene doubled to right, Carpenter scored and Torres scored.4–3
- 2Carpenter singled to right, Báez scored and Keith scored, Torres to third.2–3
- 1Garcia homered to left center (387 feet), Witt Jr. scored.0–3
- 1Yastrzemski homered to right center (432 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- KC 52%
- ML DET +100 / KC -120
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- KC: Elo 49.3%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- KC -109
- DET +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.7 – 4.8 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −13 | DET: Chris Paddack: team allows 0.00 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.66 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +5 Elo | DET 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 3.927th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.93rd of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.6 | Margin | 0.018th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3034–32 | Road vs home | 36–3016th of 30 |
| 30th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 149526th of 30 |
| 11th of 301516 | Elo rating | 150715th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 64–71 | 67–67 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 45–52 | 24–37 |
| Underdog | 19–19 | 43–30 |
| Overs–unders | 74–61 | 60–74 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 23–13 KC in their last 36 meetings; the forecast called 21 of 36.