Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Jake RogersBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Tarik SkubalPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Royals- Maikel GarciaBatting2-4
- Michael WachaPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Greene scored, McKinstry to second, and Pérez to third on passed ball by Maile.5–0
- 8Greene scored on a passed ball by Maile, McKinstry to second on passed ball by Maile, Pérez to third on passed ball by Maile.5–0
- 5Torres singled to center, Keith scored.4–0
- 5Keith doubled to center, Rogers scored.3–0
- 5Rogers tripled to center, Torkelson scored and McKinstry scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- DET 61%
- ML DET -175 / KC +145
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.5 pts
- DET: Elo 50.5%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- DET -156
- KC +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.2 – 3.3 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | +2 | DET: Tarik Skubal: team allows 0.65 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Michael Wacha: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +3 Elo | DET 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 61.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 60.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 3.927th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.93rd of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | 0.017th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 5th of 3035–33 | Road vs home | 37–3116th of 30 |
| 29th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 149624th of 30 |
| 12th of 301517 | Elo rating | 150716th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 65–72 | 68–68 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 45–53 | 24–38 |
| Underdog | 20–19 | 44–30 |
| Overs–unders | 74–63 | 60–76 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 24–14 KC in their last 38 meetings; the forecast called 21 of 38.