Los Angeles Angels at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Luis RengifoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Kyle HendricksPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 0 K
Royals- Vinnie PasquantinoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Noah CameronPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Witt Jr. homered to left center (399 feet).3–4
- 7Perez homered to left (402 feet).3–3
- 4Pasquantino homered to right (399 feet).3–2
- 2Frazier homered to right (393 feet).3–1
- 1Rengifo homered to left (384 feet), Ward scored and Adell scored.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- KC 58%
- ML LAA +130 / KC -155
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- KC: Elo 57.4%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- KC -140
- LAA +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.4 – 5.1 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1459 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +3 | LAA: Kyle Hendricks: team allows 0.51 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Noah Cameron: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +52 Elo | KC 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 61.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 60.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.3 | Runs scored | 3.828th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 3.93rd of 30 |
| 28th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −0.118th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 20th of 3032–38 | Road vs home | 37–3419th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 149626th of 30 |
| 27th of 301459 | Elo rating | 150019th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 73–66 | 68–71 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 11–26 | 24–40 |
| Underdog | 62–40 | 44–31 |
| Overs–unders | 76–63 | 60–79 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 8–7 KC in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 15.