Athletics at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Colby ThomasBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- J.T. GinnPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Angels- Matthew LugoBatting2-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Yusei KikuchiPitching2.0 IP, 7 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Lugo singled to right, Davidson scored, Taylor to second.17–4
- 9Bleday homered to right (385 feet), Cortes scored and Gelof scored.17–3
- 8Adell homered to left (419 feet).14–3
- 8Lugo homered to right center (383 feet).14–2
- 8Langeliers singled to left, Gelof scored and Hernaiz scored, Bleday to second.14–1
- 8Cortes homered to right center (389 feet), Thomas scored and Schuemann scored.12–1
- 6Soderstrom grounded out to first, Thomas scored, Wilson to second.9–1
- 4Kurtz homered to center (447 feet).8–1
- 3Moncada tripled to right, Trout scored.7–1
- 2Thomas homered to left center (411 feet), Rooker scored and Kurtz scored.7–0
- 2Rooker doubled to right, Langeliers scored.4–0
- 1Soderstrom doubled to left, Kurtz scored, Wilson scored and Thomas scored.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Angels 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAA 54%
- ML ATH +110 / LAA -130
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.5 pts
- LAA: Elo 48.8%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- LAA -119
- ATH +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 4.1 – 4.4 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1455 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −8 | ATH: J.T. Ginn: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · LAA: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.41 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATH +8 Elo | ATH 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAA 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.321st of 30 |
| 28th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 5.027th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.828th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 9th of 3036–37 | Road vs home | 34–3624th of 30 |
| 17th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15054th of 30 |
| 24th of 301475 | Elo rating | 145527th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 78–64 | 74–67 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 16–20 | 11–27 |
| Underdog | 62–44 | 63–40 |
| Overs–unders | 76–66 | 77–64 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 17–20 LAA in their last 37 meetings; the forecast called 19 of 37.