Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Byron BuxtonBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Thomas HatchPitching3.0 IP, 4 ER, 0 K
Royals- Salvador PerezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Stephen KolekPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Jensen grounded out to second, Caglianone scored, Loftin to third.2–11
- 6Loftin doubled to left, Frazier scored, Caglianone to third.2–10
- 4Jensen doubled to right, Caglianone scored.2–9
- 3Pasquantino singled to left, Yastrzemski scored, Garcia to third.2–8
- 3Garcia singled to left, Isbel scored, Yastrzemski to second.2–7
- 3Isbel doubled to right, Loftin scored.2–6
- 3Keaschall grounded out to shortstop, Buxton scored.2–5
- 3Buxton tripled to center, Outman scored.1–5
- 1Loftin doubled to center, Frazier scored.0–5
- 1Perez homered to left center (415 feet), Garcia scored and Pasquantino scored.0–4
- 1Pasquantino doubled to right, Yastrzemski scored, Garcia to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 54%
- ML MIN -130 / KC +110
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 43%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.9 pts
- MIN: Elo 43.4%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- MIN -119
- KC +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.4 – 4.1 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1463 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −1 | MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Stephen Kolek: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +46 Elo | KC 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.828th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 3.92nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.6 | Margin | 0.018th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 27th of 3027–43 | Road vs home | 39–3416th of 30 |
| 20th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149526th of 30 |
| 26th of 301463 | Elo rating | 150219th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 68–73 | 68–73 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 32–44 | 24–42 |
| Underdog | 36–28 | 44–31 |
| Overs–unders | 69–72 | 60–81 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 21–16 KC in their last 37 meetings; the forecast called 24 of 37.