Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Edgar QueroBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Yoendrys GomezPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Twins- Royce LewisBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Zebby MatthewsPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9M. Taylor doubled to left, Baldwin scored and Benintendi scored.4–3
- 9Baldwin singled to right, Lee scored, Benintendi to third.2–3
- 6Lewis singled to left, Jeffers scored.1–3
- 2Quero homered to left (354 feet).1–2
- 1Wallner singled to right, Keaschall scored on fielding error by right fielder Baldwin.0–2
- 1Keaschall doubled to left, Larnach scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 60%
- ML CHW +140 / MIN -165
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.6 pts
- MIN: Elo 57.4%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- MIN -149
- CHW +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.8 – 4.7 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1434 | 1468 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | −10 | CHW: Yoendrys Gomez: team allows 0.45 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · MIN: Zebby Matthews: team allows 0.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +51 Elo | MIN 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 58.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 58.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.224th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.723rd of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.523rd of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 29th of 3021–46 | Road vs home | 35–3421st of 30 |
| 6th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149920th of 30 |
| 29th of 301434 | Elo rating | 146826th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 80–59 | 67–71 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–5 | 32–42 |
| Underdog | 78–53 | 35–28 |
| Overs–unders | 69–70 | 68–70 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 11–26 MIN in their last 37 meetings; the forecast called 27 of 37.