Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Andrew BenintendiBatting4-5, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Davis MartinPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Twins- Trevor LarnachBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Simeon Woods RichardsonPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Benintendi homered to right center (406 feet), Teel scored and Montgomery scored.12–3
- 7Robertson singled to right, Benintendi scored and Mead scored, Baldwin to second.9–3
- 7Sosa homered to center (425 feet).7–3
- 7Teel homered to right center (385 feet).6–3
- 6Baldwin singled to left, Mead scored, Benintendi to second.5–3
- 6Benintendi singled to left, Montgomery scored, Mead to third.4–3
- 5Ramos doubled to right, Baldwin scored and Robertson scored.3–3
- 4Gasper sacrificed into double play, left to third, Clemens scored, Outman to second, Martin thrown out at third.1–3
- 2Fitzgerald singled to left, Gasper scored.1–2
- 2Benintendi homered to right (398 feet).1–1
- 1Larnach singled to center, Buxton scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 54%
- ML CHW +110 / MIN -130
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.8 pts
- MIN: Elo 60.0%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- MIN -119
- CHW +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.6 – 4.9 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1429 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +4 | CHW: Davis Martin: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Simeon Woods Richardson: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +71 Elo | MIN 60.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 58.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 58.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 21st of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.723rd of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −0.523rd of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 29th of 3020–46 | Road vs home | 35–3319th of 30 |
| 6th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149920th of 30 |
| 29th of 301429 | Elo rating | 147225th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 79–59 | 67–70 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–5 | 32–41 |
| Underdog | 77–53 | 35–28 |
| Overs–unders | 68–70 | 67–70 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 10–26 MIN in their last 36 meetings; the forecast called 27 of 36.