San Diego Padres at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Elias DiazBatting2-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Nick PivettaPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Twins- Byron BuxtonBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Taj BradleyPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Laureano homered to left center (403 feet), O'Hearn scored.12–3
- 7Díaz homered to left (360 feet), Cronenworth scored.10–3
- 7Cronenworth doubled to center, Johnson scored and O'Hearn scored.8–3
- 7Sheets singled to right, Machado scored, O'Hearn to second.6–3
- 7O'Hearn singled to center, Arraez scored, Machado to third.5–3
- 7Machado singled to left, Tatis Jr. scored, Arraez to second.4–3
- 6Sheets singled to right, Machado scored, Laureano to third.3–3
- 6Laureano singled to left, Arraez scored, Laureano to second, Machado to third.2–3
- 5Buxton homered to right (367 feet), Outman scored.1–3
- 5Díaz homered to left (405 feet).1–1
- 3Larnach singled to right, Outman scored, Buxton to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SD 58%
- ML SD -155 / MIN +130
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- SD: Elo 58.1%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- SD -140
- MIN +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.6 – 3.9 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −6 | SD: Nick Pivetta: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Taj Bradley: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +57 Elo | SD 58.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 59.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 59.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.623rd of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.423rd of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 19th of 3032–38 | Road vs home | 34–3118th of 30 |
| 11th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 150020th of 30 |
| 6th of 301534 | Elo rating | 147325th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 77–58 | 66–68 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 32–40 | 31–40 |
| Underdog | 45–18 | 35–27 |
| Overs–unders | 59–76 | 64–70 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 3–4 MIN in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.