San Diego Padres at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting2-5, 2 RBI
- Nestor CortesPitching3.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Twins- Royce LewisBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zebby MatthewsPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Tatis Jr. singled to center, Iglesias scored and Sheets scored, Cronenworth to second.4–7
- 5Buxton singled to left, Clemens scored, Larnach to second.2–7
- 5Lewis homered to left center (405 feet).2–6
- 4Larnach singled to center, Lewis scored and Clemens scored.2–5
- 4Clemens grounded into fielder's choice to second, Wallner scored. Lewis safe at second on fielding error by second baseman Cronenworth, Martin scored, Lewis to third, Clemens to second.2–3
- 4Iglesias singled to right, Sheets scored on throwing error by right fielder Wallner, Iglesias to second.2–1
- 3Buxton grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Clemens scored, Larnach out at second.1–1
- 3Arraez hit sacrifice fly to left, Cronenworth scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SD 53%
- ML SD -125 / MIN +105
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.2 pts
- SD: Elo 58.4%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- SD -114
- MIN +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.4 – 4.1 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −14 | SD: Nestor Cortes: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Zebby Matthews: team allows 0.70 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +59 Elo | SD 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 53.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.224th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.623rd of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.522nd of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 16th of 3032–37 | Road vs home | 33–3118th of 30 |
| 11th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149920th of 30 |
| 5th of 301537 | Elo rating | 147125th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 77–57 | 65–68 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 32–39 | 31–40 |
| Underdog | 45–18 | 34–27 |
| Overs–unders | 58–76 | 63–70 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 3–3 MIN in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.