Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Colson MontgomeryBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Fraser EllardPitching1.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Twins- Royce LewisBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bailey OberPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Tauchman doubled to center, Baldwin scored.6–5
- 8Baldwin doubled to center, Ramos scored.5–5
- 7Lee singled to left, Martin scored.4–5
- 6Buxton hit sacrifice fly to left, Keirsey Jr. scored.4–4
- 6Lewis homered to left center (397 feet).4–3
- 5Tauchman singled to center, Baldwin scored, Tauchman to second.4–2
- 4Buxton scored on throwing error by catcher Teel.3–2
- 4Buxton scored on throwing error by catcher Teel.3–2
- 2Buxton walked, Lewis scored, Outman to second, Julien to third.3–1
- 2Meidroth homered to left center (395 feet), Mead scored.3–0
- 2Montgomery homered to right center (395 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 62%
- ML CHW +155 / MIN -185
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.2 pts
- MIN: Elo 58.2%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- MIN -166
- CHW +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.2 – 5.3 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1428 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −3 | CHW: Fraser Ellard (no track record yet) · MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +57 Elo | MIN 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 56.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 56.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 21st of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.723rd of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −0.523rd of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 29th of 3019–46 | Road vs home | 35–3218th of 30 |
| 6th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 150020th of 30 |
| 29th of 301428 | Elo rating | 147324th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 78–59 | 67–69 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–5 | 32–40 |
| Underdog | 76–53 | 35–28 |
| Overs–unders | 67–70 | 66–70 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 9–26 MIN in their last 35 meetings; the forecast called 27 of 35.