San Diego Padres at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Bryce JohnsonBatting1-1, 1 RBI
- David MorganPitching2.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Twins- Byron BuxtonBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Joe RyanPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Johnson singled to right, Fermin scored.2–7
- 9Fermin doubled to left, McCoy scored.1–7
- 7Lewis singled to right, Lee scored, Keaschall to third.0–7
- 5Lewis singled to center, Keaschall scored, Clemens to third.0–6
- 5Jeffers hit sacrifice fly to right, Lee scored, Keaschall to third.0–5
- 5Keaschall singled to center, Buxton scored, Lee to second.0–4
- 4Outman singled to center, Keaschall scored, Jeffers to third.0–3
- 3Buxton homered to left (366 feet), Martin scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 53%
- ML SD +105 / MIN -125
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 43%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.1 pts
- MIN: Elo 43.1%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- MIN -114
- SD +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.1 – 4.4 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +6 | SD: David Morgan: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +48 Elo | SD 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 50.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.224th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.723rd of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.523rd of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 17th of 3033–38 | Road vs home | 34–3219th of 30 |
| 11th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 150020th of 30 |
| 6th of 301537 | Elo rating | 147026th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 78–58 | 66–69 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 33–40 | 31–40 |
| Underdog | 45–18 | 35–28 |
| Overs–unders | 60–76 | 65–70 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 4–4 MIN in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.