Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Kyle TeelBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Jonathan CannonPitching2.1 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Twins- Kody ClemensBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Taj BradleyPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Clemens homered to right (362 feet).11–8
- 9Montgomery homered to right center (454 feet), Sosa scored.11–7
- 7Montgomery scored, Meidroth to second on a balk.9–7
- 7Montgomery scored on a balk, Meidroth to second on a balk.9–7
- 7Benintendi hit sacrifice fly to center, Sosa scored, Montgomery to second.8–7
- 7Teel homered to right (413 feet), M. Taylor scored and Quero scored.7–7
- 6Gasper grounded out to first, Keaschall scored, Larnach to third.4–7
- 5Wallner homered to right center (408 feet).4–6
- 5Montgomery hit sacrifice fly to center, Teel scored.4–5
- 4Gasper singled to center, Keaschall scored and Larnach scored.3–5
- 4Larnach reached on infield single to second, Fitzgerald scored, Keaschall to third.3–3
- 4Keaschall singled to left, Martin scored, Fitzgerald to third.3–2
- 4Fitzgerald singled to center, Wallner scored, Martin to third.3–1
- 3Mead doubled to center, Montgomery scored and Teel scored.3–0
- 3Teel singled to center, Quero scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 57%
- ML CHW +125 / MIN -150
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.6 pts
- MIN: Elo 54.9%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- MIN -135
- CHW +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.9 – 4.6 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1435 | 1467 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −13 | CHW: Fraser Ellard: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · MIN: Taj Bradley: team allows 0.64 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +34 Elo | MIN 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 58.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 57.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.225th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.723rd of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.523rd of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 28th of 3022–46 | Road vs home | 35–3522nd of 30 |
| 8th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149920th of 30 |
| 29th of 301435 | Elo rating | 146726th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 81–59 | 67–72 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–5 | 32–43 |
| Underdog | 79–53 | 35–28 |
| Overs–unders | 69–71 | 68–71 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 12–26 MIN in their last 38 meetings; the forecast called 27 of 38.