Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Kody ClemensBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bailey OberPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Royals- Mike YastrzemskiBatting2-5
- Michael LorenzenPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Wallner walked, Julien scored, Martin to second, Lee to third.5–1
- 6Pasquantino singled to left, Garcia scored.4–1
- 6Keaschall stole home, Lewis stole second.4–0
- 6Keaschall stole home, Lewis stole second.4–0
- 4Clemens homered to center (451 feet), Wallner scored.3–0
- 1Buxton homered to left center (402 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- KC 53%
- ML MIN +105 / KC -125
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.4 pts
- KC: Elo 59.6%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- KC -114
- MIN +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.1 – 4.4 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1460 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +1 | MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Michael Lorenzen: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +68 Elo | KC 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 55.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.928th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 3.92nd of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.6 | Margin | 0.018th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 27th of 3027–44 | Road vs home | 40–3416th of 30 |
| 20th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149528th of 30 |
| 26th of 301460 | Elo rating | 150417th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 68–74 | 69–73 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 32–45 | 24–42 |
| Underdog | 36–28 | 45–31 |
| Overs–unders | 70–72 | 61–81 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 21–17 KC in their last 38 meetings; the forecast called 24 of 38.