Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Royce LewisBatting3-5, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Simeon Woods RichardsonPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Angels- Sebastian RiveroBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Caden DanaPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9Keaschall singled to right, Wallner scored.12–3
- 9Wallner doubled to right, Outman scored and Gasper scored.11–3
- 8Lewis singled to left, Keaschall scored.9–3
- 8Larnach hit sacrifice fly to left, Martin scored, Keaschall to third.8–3
- 6Martin scored on error, Lewis safe at first on fielding error by third baseman Moncada, Wallner to second.7–3
- 6Outman homered to right center (440 feet).6–3
- 5Lewis homered to left (383 feet), Larnach scored.5–3
- 3Keaschall singled to left, Martin scored, Wallner to second.3–3
- 2Trout singled to left, Rivero scored.2–3
- 2Rivero doubled to center, Lugo scored and Peraza scored.2–2
- 2Lewis homered to center (397 feet), Larnach scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Angels 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAA 53%
- ML MIN +105 / LAA -125
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- LAA: Elo 51.9%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- LAA -114
- MIN +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.6 – 4.9 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1463 | 1452 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +2 | MIN: Simeon Woods Richardson: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Caden Dana: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +13 Elo | LAA 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAA 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.323rd of 30 |
| 24th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 5.127th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.828th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 27th of 3028–44 | Road vs home | 35–3724th of 30 |
| 20th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15063rd of 30 |
| 25th of 301463 | Elo rating | 145227th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 69–74 | 74–69 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 32–45 | 11–29 |
| Underdog | 37–28 | 63–40 |
| Overs–unders | 70–73 | 78–65 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 11–4 LAA in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 15.