Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Ryan FitzgeraldBatting1-1, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zebby MatthewsPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Angels- Chris TaylorBatting2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Kyle HendricksPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Fitzgerald homered to right (361 feet), Martin scored.2–12
- 7Moncada homered to right (375 feet), Rivero scored and Teodosio scored.0–12
- 6Taylor homered to center (413 feet), Trout scored and Ward scored.0–9
- 6Ward singled to left, Teodosio scored, Trout to second.0–6
- 5Rengifo singled to right, Moncada scored, Taylor to second.0–5
- 5Taylor singled to left, Trout scored, Moncada to second.0–4
- 1Ward stole home, Rengifo stole second, Rengifo safe at third on throwing error by second baseman Keaschall.0–3
- 1Ward stole home, Rengifo stole second, Rengifo safe at third on throwing error by second baseman Keaschall.0–3
- 1Rengifo singled to right, Moncada scored and Trout scored, Ward to third.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 51%
- ML MIN -115 / LAA -105
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- MIN: Elo 48.0%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- MIN -104
- LAA +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.3 – 4.2 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1467 | 1448 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +8 | MIN: Zebby Matthews: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · LAA: Kyle Hendricks: team allows 0.40 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +14 Elo | LAA 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 50.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.224th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 5.128th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.928th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 26th of 3029–44 | Road vs home | 35–3824th of 30 |
| 20th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15053rd of 30 |
| 25th of 301467 | Elo rating | 144827th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 70–74 | 74–70 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 32–45 | 11–30 |
| Underdog | 38–28 | 63–40 |
| Overs–unders | 71–73 | 79–65 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 12–4 LAA in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 16.