Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Logan DavidsonBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Yusei KikuchiPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Mariners- Mitch GarverBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Garver homered to left (396 feet).1–2
- 7Davidson doubled to right, Rengifo scored.1–1
- 4Polanco doubled to left, Raleigh scored, Suárez to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 62%
- ML LAA +155 / SEA -185
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- SEA: Elo 64.2%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- SEA -166
- LAA +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.2 – 4.3 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1452 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −23 | −10 | LAA: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 1.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.51 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +101 Elo | SEA 64.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 59.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 60.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.711th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.417th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +0.313th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 21st of 3032–40 | Road vs home | 45–277th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 30 |
| 27th of 301452 | Elo rating | 152210th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 76–71 | 61–86 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 12–31 | 29–64 |
| Underdog | 64–40 | 32–22 |
| Overs–unders | 81–66 | 81–66 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 17–19 SEA in their last 36 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 36.