Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Mike TroutBatting2-6, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jose SorianoPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Mariners- J.P. CrawfordBatting2-5, 3 RBI
- Bryce MillerPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 11 K
Scoring summary
- 12Ford hit sacrifice fly to right, Polanco scored.6–7
- 12Polanco doubled to left, Naylor scored.6–6
- 12Lugo singled to left, Rivero scored, Davidson to second.6–5
- 11Crawford singled to right, Raley scored.5–5
- 11Ward singled to center, Trout scored, Moncada to second.5–4
- 5Trout homered to left center (395 feet).4–4
- 4Rengifo grounded out to shortstop, Ward scored.3–4
- 4Taylor hit sacrifice fly to center, Moncada scored, Ward to third.2–4
- 3Davidson homered to center (422 feet).1–4
- 2Rodríguez doubled to left, Crawford scored and Arozarena scored, Raleigh to third.0–4
- 2Crawford doubled to left, Raley scored and Rivas scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 57%
- ML LAA +125 / SEA -150
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.9 pts
- SEA: Elo 62.3%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- SEA -135
- LAA +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.4 – 4.1 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1453 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +1 | LAA: Jose Soriano: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: Bryce Miller: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +87 Elo | SEA 62.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 55.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.711th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.418th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +0.313th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 21st of 3032–39 | Road vs home | 44–277th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 30 |
| 27th of 301453 | Elo rating | 152210th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 75–71 | 61–85 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 12–31 | 29–63 |
| Underdog | 63–40 | 32–22 |
| Overs–unders | 80–66 | 80–66 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 17–18 SEA in their last 35 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 35.