Los Angeles Angels at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Christian MooreBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Caden DanaPitching3.2 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Brewers- Christian YelichBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 8Contreras singled to left, Chourio scored and Frelick scored, Yelich to second.2–9
- 8Chourio singled to left, Perkins scored, Frelick to second.2–7
- 7Vaughn doubled to right, Turang scored.2–6
- 7Moore homered to center (391 feet).2–5
- 5Guzman homered to center (409 feet).1–5
- 4Yelich homered to center (409 feet), Frelick scored.0–5
- 3Durbin singled to left, Contreras scored, Vaughn to second.0–3
- 2Frelick hit sacrifice fly to right, Durbin scored.0–2
- 1Yelich doubled to right, Chourio scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 70%
- ML LAA +225 / MIL -275
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- MIL: Elo 71.3%, market 70.4%
- Fair odds
- MIL -238
- LAA +238 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.3 – 5.2 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1447 | 1570 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | +5 | LAA: Caden Dana: team allows 0.65 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · MIL: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +158 Elo | MIL 71.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 65.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 66.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 70.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.13rd of 30 |
| 28th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 3.93rd of 30 |
| 28th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +1.21st of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 21st of 3032–43 | Road vs home | 48–273rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 149722nd of 30 |
| 27th of 301447 | Elo rating | 15701st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 77–73 | 83–67 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 12–31 | 41–47 |
| Underdog | 65–42 | 42–20 |
| Overs–unders | 83–67 | 75–75 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 2–4 MIL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.