St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Jose FerminBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Brewers- Caleb DurbinBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jose QuintanaPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 5Jansen homered to left center (410 feet).3–2
- 4Durbin homered to left (359 feet).3–1
- 2Church reached on infield single to first, Walker scored, Fermín to third.3–0
- 2Fermín singled to center, Gorman scored, Walker to second.2–0
- 2Pagés hit sacrifice fly to right, Saggese scored, Gorman to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 63%
- ML STL +160 / MIL -190
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.3 pts
- MIL: Elo 65.3%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- MIL -170
- STL +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.7 – 4.8 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1571 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −3 | STL: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Jose Quintana: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +110 Elo | MIL 65.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 62.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 63.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.12nd of 30 |
| 21st of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 3.94th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.4 | Margin | +1.21st of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3031–43 | Road vs home | 48–263rd of 30 |
| 10th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149722nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 301474 | Elo rating | 15711st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 69–80 | 83–66 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 24–46 | 41–46 |
| Underdog | 45–34 | 42–20 |
| Overs–unders | 79–70 | 75–74 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 13–22 MIL in their last 35 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 35.