Los Angeles Angels at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Luis RengifoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Yusei KikuchiPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Brewers- Caleb DurbinBatting2-3, 2 RBI
- Quinn PriesterPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 7Vaughn hit sacrifice fly to left, Contreras scored.2–5
- 7Yelich doubled to left, Turang scored, Contreras to third.2–4
- 7Turang singled to center, Chourio scored, Turang to second.2–3
- 6Durbin singled to center, Yelich scored, Vaughn to second.2–2
- 5Rengifo homered to right center (386 feet), Adell scored.2–1
- 4Durbin reached on infield single to shortstop, Vaughn scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 68%
- ML LAA +200 / MIL -240
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.4 pts
- MIL: Elo 73.3%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- MIL -212
- LAA +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 2.9 – 4.6 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1444 | 1573 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | +12 | LAA: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.81 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Quinn Priester: team allows 0.59 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +175 Elo | MIL 73.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 63.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 64.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.12nd of 30 |
| 28th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 3.93rd of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +1.21st of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3032–45 | Road vs home | 50–273rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 149625th of 30 |
| 27th of 301444 | Elo rating | 15731st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 77–75 | 85–67 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 12–31 | 43–47 |
| Underdog | 65–44 | 42–20 |
| Overs–unders | 85–67 | 77–75 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 2–6 MIL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.