Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Gavin LuxBatting1-4
- Andrew AbbottPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Cardinals- Thomas SaggeseBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Michael McGreevyPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 3Saggese homered to left center (391 feet), Burleson scored.0–3
- 1Arenado hit sacrifice fly to center, Donovan scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 53%
- ML CIN -125 / STL +105
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.1 pts
- CIN: Elo 51.2%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- CIN -114
- STL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.9 – 3.6 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +1 | CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Michael McGreevy: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +8 Elo | CIN 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.318th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.722nd of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.421st of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 18th of 3035–41 | Road vs home | 41–3517th of 30 |
| 15th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15038th of 30 |
| 19th of 301500 | Elo rating | 147323rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 78–72 | 70–81 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 22–44 | 24–47 |
| Underdog | 55–28 | 46–34 |
| Overs–unders | 61–89 | 80–71 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 18–19 STL in their last 37 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 37.