Cincinnati Reds at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Noelvi MarteBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nick LodoloPitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Athletics- Colby ThomasBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Luis MoralesPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Stewart homered to left center (417 feet).4–7
- 7Rooker homered to center (412 feet), Kurtz scored.3–7
- 6B. Harris doubled to left, Thomas scored.3–5
- 5Kurtz homered to left (379 feet), Wilson scored.3–4
- 4Thomas homered to left center (381 feet).3–2
- 4Wilson homered to left (379 feet).3–1
- 2Benson homered to right (375 feet), Lux scored.3–0
- 1Marte homered to left (371 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATH 50%
- ML CIN -110 / ATH -110
- Pre-line forecast
- ATH 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATH 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- ATH: Elo 51.0%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- ATH -100
- CIN -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.8 – 4.8 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +16 | CIN: Nick Lodolo: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: Luis Morales: team allows 0.78 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATH +7 Elo | ATH 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATH 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATH 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATH 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.128th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.523rd of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 17th of 3034–40 | Road vs home | 32–4227th of 30 |
| 14th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150113th of 30 |
| 18th of 301500 | Elo rating | 147922nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 77–71 | 82–67 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 22–44 | 17–22 |
| Underdog | 54–27 | 65–45 |
| Overs–unders | 59–89 | 78–71 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 3–5 ATH in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.
