Cincinnati Reds at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- TJ FriedlBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nick LodoloPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Padres- Gavin SheetsBatting3-3, 1 RBI
- Yu DarvishPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 10Tatis Jr. hit sacrifice fly to left, Cronenworth scored.3–4
- 6Merrill tripled to right, Sheets scored and Laureano scored.3–3
- 6Sheets doubled to right, Tatis Jr. scored.3–1
- 6Hays homered to left (384 feet).3–0
- 3De La Cruz singled to center, Friedl scored.2–0
- 1Friedl homered to right (343 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SD 54%
- ML CIN +110 / SD -130
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- SD: Elo 55.6%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- SD -119
- CIN +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.6 – 3.9 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +3 | CIN: Nick Lodolo: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Yu Darvish: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +39 Elo | SD 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 56.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 56.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.322nd of 30 |
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.92nd of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.412th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 17th of 3032–37 | Road vs home | 43–255th of 30 |
| 13th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 30 |
| 17th of 301503 | Elo rating | 15286th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 74–69 | 80–63 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 22–43 | 35–44 |
| Underdog | 51–26 | 45–19 |
| Overs–unders | 58–85 | 63–80 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 7–8 SD in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 15.