Toronto Blue Jays at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- George SpringerBatting3-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Eric LauerPitching2.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Reds- Austin HaysBatting2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Brent SuterPitching2.1 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Guerrero Jr. scored on a passed ball by Trevino, Kirk to second on passed ball by Trevino.12–9
- 9Guerrero Jr. scored on a passed ball by Trevino, Kirk to second on passed ball by Trevino.12–9
- 8Friedl homered to right (360 feet).11–9
- 7Varsho homered to right center (423 feet).11–8
- 4Lux singled to right, Hays scored.10–8
- 4Hays doubled to left, Friedl scored.10–7
- 4Springer homered to left center (425 feet), Kiner-Falefa scored.10–6
- 2Hays homered to left (413 feet), Marte scored and De La Cruz scored.8–6
- 2McLain scored on error, Marte safe at first on throwing error by third baseman Kiner-Falefa.8–3
- 2McLain doubled to left, Trevino scored.8–2
- 2Bichette homered to center (412 feet), Springer scored and Guerrero Jr. scored.8–1
- 2Guerrero Jr. singled to right, Kiner-Falefa scored, Springer to second.5–1
- 1De La Cruz singled to center, Marte scored.4–1
- 1Kirk doubled to center, Guerrero Jr. scored, Varsho scored and Bichette scored, Kirk thrown out at third.4–0
- 1Springer homered to left center (388 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 54%
- ML TOR -130 / CIN +110
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.1 pts
- TOR: Elo 49.2%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- TOR -119
- CIN +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.4 – 4.1 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | −5 | TOR: Jose Berrios: team allows 0.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Scott Barlow (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +6 Elo | CIN 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.213th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.213th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 8th of 3034–35 | Road vs home | 38–3015th of 30 |
| 13th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150018th of 30 |
| 10th of 301520 | Elo rating | 150516th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 76–62 | 72–66 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 33–40 | 22–42 |
| Underdog | 42–22 | 49–24 |
| Overs–unders | 82–56 | 56–82 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 3–4 CIN in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.