Toronto Blue Jays at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Bo BichetteBatting4-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Reds- Ke'Bryan HayesBatting3-4, 2 RBI
- Hunter GreenePitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Marte singled to left, McLain scored and Friedl scored.4–5
- 9Friedl hit a ground rule double, Hayes scored, McLain to third.4–3
- 9Varsho homered to right (386 feet).4–2
- 9Bichette homered to right center (381 feet), Straw scored.3–2
- 7Kirk singled to left, Bichette scored, Varsho to second.1–2
- 2Hayes doubled to left, Lux scored and Stewart scored, Hayes to third.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 53%
- ML TOR +105 / CIN -125
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- CIN: Elo 53.0%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- CIN -114
- TOR +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.6 – 3.9 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | +4 | TOR: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.79 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Hunter Greene: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +21 Elo | CIN 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.213th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.213th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 6th of 3034–34 | Road vs home | 37–3015th of 30 |
| 15th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150017th of 30 |
| 8th of 301521 | Elo rating | 150416th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 75–62 | 72–65 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 33–40 | 22–41 |
| Underdog | 41–22 | 49–24 |
| Overs–unders | 81–56 | 55–82 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 3–3 CIN in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.